Assessment of climate change transformations and their impact on the hydrological regime of Gorgan Bay Wetland

نوع مقاله : Special issue on "Climate Change and Effects on Water and Soil"

نویسندگان

1 Research Group of Environmental Assessment and Risk, Research Center for Environment and Sustainable Development (RCESD), Department of Environment, Tehran, Iran

2 Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI), Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran

3 Research Group of Biodiversity and Biosafety, Research Center for Environment and Sustainable Development (RCESD), Department of Environment, Tehran, Iran

4 Department of Environment, Tehran, Iran

چکیده

Wetlands offer critical ecosystem services, yet they are increasingly threatened by climate change. This study investigates the historical and projected hydrological dynamics of the Gorgan Bay Wetland, located in northern Iran along the Caspian Sea, which is highly sensitive to climate variability and upstream water management. Landsat imagery from 1984 to 2022, combined with field surveys and bathymetric modeling, was used to estimate changes in surface area and water volume. Spectral indices (NDWI, MNDWI) facilitated wetland delineation, while field-measured water depths informed volumetric analyses using TIN modeling. Climate variables, including temperature, precipitation, and snow-water equivalent, were obtained from the TerraClimate database. Pearson correlation and regression analyses assessed the impact of climatic factors, revealing a strong negative relationship between maximum temperature and both wetland area (r = -0.496) and volume (r = -0.479), and a positive correlation with snow water equivalent (r = 0.400). Results indicate a 24% reduction in surface area and a 47% decline in volume from 2015 to 2022. Scenario-based projections using IPCC AR6 (SSP2-4.5) suggest a 1.3–1.8°C rise in temperature by 2040, potentially reducing wetland area by approximately 4,494 hectares. Under higher-emission scenarios, losses could be more severe. These findings highlight the vulnerability of the wetland to ongoing warming and stress the need for adaptive water management strategies. Recommendations include increased environmental water allocations and modernized upstream irrigation. This study offers a robust, integrative framework for assessing climate-driven wetland change and supports policy efforts aimed at sustainable ecosystem management.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

مراجع

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 26 اسفند 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 13 اردیبهشت 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 11 خرداد 1404

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