نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1
Ph.D. student in Agrotechnology, Department of Production and Genetic Engineering, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resource University of Khuzestan, Ahvaz, Iran
2
Associate Professor, Department of Production and Genetic Engineering, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resource University of Khuzestan, Ahvaz, Iran
3
Professor, Department of Production and Genetic Engineering, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resource University of Khuzestan, Ahvaz, Iran
4
Assistant Professor, Soil and Water Research Department, Khuzestan Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Ahvaz, Iran
چکیده
Given the arid and semi-arid climatic conditions of Khuzestan and the poor quality of agricultural lands, identifying key factors influencing optimal water and farm crop management is essential. In this regard, it is beneficial to utilize plant growth models that can simulate crop performance. Therefor to evaluate the yield of triticale plant under the influence of planting date and plant density,an experiment was conducted in a split plot design in a randomized complete block design over two years (2022-2023 and 2023-2024). with three replications.In this study four planting dates(22 Novamber,6 December, 21 December,and 5 January). In the main plots and density in the subplots. The planted variety was Sanabad triticale with a density of 400 plant/m2 . Four planting dates were assessed with plant growth model Aqua crop. The planting date of 22 November, which produced the highest yield, was used for model calibration, while the other dates were used for validation. Results showed the highest measured and simulated grain yields (8.35 and 8.8 ton.ha⁻¹, respectively) were obtained for 22 Novamber, whereas the lowest yields (5.27 and 6.01 ton.ha⁻¹) occurred for 5 January. Evaluation indices (R², EF, and d) which reflect the model's correlation and accuracy in simulation, were close to unity across all planting dates, demonstrating the model's high precision in determining the optimal planting date to maximize Triticale yield. Furthermore, this study indicates that projected regional climate changes across all three time periods and RCP scenarios involve rising temperatures and declining precipitation, posing a serious threat to food security; specifically, the adverse effects of these changes on Triticale yields over time and particularly in the long-term horizon (2061–2080) under the RCP8.5 scenario point to a yield reduction of approximately 30% due to increased temperatures and heat stress.
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