Detection of climate warming signals in Zagros forests using cold temperature indices

نوع مقاله : Special issue on "Climate Change and Effects on Water and Soil"

نویسندگان

1 Associate Prof., Desert Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Prof., Desert Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran

3 Researcher, Desert Department, Research Institute of Forest and Rangelands (RIFR), Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran

10.22098/mmws.2025.18026.1640

چکیده

One of the new challenges of the last two decades is the decline of the Zagros oak forests. Numerous natural and human factors have influenced the occurrence of this phenomenon. The natural factors of climate change are decisive, which have led directly and through the superimposition of other factors to the drying out of the Zagros trees, especially the oaks. The driving forces of climate change are rising temperatures. One of the manifestations of rising temperatures is the decline in cold temperature indices. In this study, daily statistics of climate parameters in synoptic stations of the Zagros vegetation area during a complete climatic period were used to detect climate change in the Zagros oak forest ecosystem. There are 58 synoptic stations in this ecosystem. Since 30 years (1990-2019) is a climatic period, 34 stations had the appropriate statistical period length. The Expert Team on Climate Risks and Sectoral Climate Indices (ET CRSCI) method was used to identify the occurrence of climate change in the Zagros ecosystem as one of the causes of oak decline. Cold temperature indices: FD0, ID0, CSDI2, CSDI6, TN10p, and TX10p were selected from the baseline indices. The trend of changes in these indicators was extracted and zoned for the entire Zagros habitat. The results showed that the spatial distribution of cold temperature indices follows three factors: the latitude, the topographic height of the region, and the path of atmospheric currents to Zagros. All cold temperature indices showed a decreasing trend, indicating an increase in temperature and climate change in the entire ecosystem of the Zagros. Due to the temperature rise, the two indicators FD0 and CSDI6 have disappeared in the Zagros ecosystem in the last decade. This can lead to disruption of the hibernation cycle of plants and trees, changes in erosion and moisture storage, damage to soil microorganisms, and provide more suitable living conditions for pests and pathogenic fungi.

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 19 مرداد 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 01 شهریور 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 26 شهریور 1404

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