Modeling streamflow dynamics under climate and land use shifts using MIKE SHE in the upper Omo Gibe catchment, Ethiopia

نوع مقاله : Special issue on "Climate Change and Effects on Water and Soil"

نویسندگان

1 PhD scholar in Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia

2 Professor, Faculty of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia

3 Associate Professor, Faculty of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia

10.22098/mmws.2025.17906.1632

چکیده

This study utilized the MIKE SHE hydrological model to analyze the combined effects of shifting climatic conditions and land use/land cover (LULC) changes on river discharge dynamics. We developed three distinct scenarios by integrating three climate data periods (1990–2000, 2001–2010, and 2011–2020) with three LULC maps (1990, 2005, and 2020). The model was systematically calibrated and validated, achieving strong performance metrics. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were 0.83 and 0.82 for calibration, and 0.80 and 0.81 for validation, respectively, demonstrating the model's reliability in simulating the catchment's hydrological processes. Our findings reveal a substantial influence of both LULC and climate changes, with the most notable impacts observed during the 2001–2010 and 2011–2020 periods. LULC alterations increased surface runoff by 10.29% and 2.38%, while decreasing subsurface flow by 6.03% and 6.82%, and reducing evapotranspiration by 0.75% and 5.49%. Climate variations further amplified these effects, augmenting surface runoff by 2.14% and 12.72%. This was accompanied by corresponding reductions in subsurface flow of 7.43% and 10.40%, and in evapotranspiration of 10.03% and 21.65%. Interestingly, both climate and LULC changes promoted subsurface flow and evapotranspiration during the 2001–2010 periods before exhibiting a declining trend in 2011–2020. The results underscore that the expansion of settlements and the reduction of forest and shrub land have intensified streamflow while lowering subsurface flow and evapotranspiration. These findings emphasize the critical need for integrated climate and land use considerations in future water resource management strategies.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

مراجع

References
Abate, A., Mulat, W. L., & Mekonnen, M. M. (2025). Optimizing Water Resources Allocation in the Nile Basin: Analyzing Long-Term Changes in Water Footprint and Virtual Water Trade for Sustainability. Ethiopian Economics Association (EEA), 29.
Abbott, M. B., et al. (1986). "An introduction to the European Hydrological System—Systeme Hydrologique Europeen, ‘SHE’, 1: History and philosophy of a physically‐based, distributed modelling system." Journal of Hydrology, 87(1), 45-59. doi: 10.1016/0022-1694(86)90114-9
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., & Smith, M. (1998). Crop evapotranspiration—Guidelines for computing crop water requirements—FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56. FAO. https://www.fao.org/3/x0490e/x0490e00.htm
Anderson, J. R. (1976). A land use and land cover classification system for use with remote sensor data (Vol. 964). US Government Printing Office. doi: 10.3133/pp964
Aredo, M. R., Hatiye, S. D., & Pingale, S. M. (2021). Impact of land use/land cover change on stream flow in the Shaya catchment of Ethiopia using the MIKE SHE model. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14(2), 1–15. doi: 10.1007/s12517-021-06447-2
Aredo, M. R., Hatiye, S. D., & Pingale, S. M. (2021). Modeling the rainfall-runoff using MIKE 11 NAM model in Shaya catchment, Ethiopia. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 7(4), 2545-2551. doi: 10.1007/s40808-020-01054-8
Ayana, E. K., Edossa, D. C., & Mengistu, D. T. (2021). Evaluating the impacts of land use land cover and climate change on streamflow in Gilgel Gibe watershed, Ethiopia, using MIKE SHE hydrological model. Sustainable Water Resources Management, 7(4), 1–12. doi: 10.1007/s40899-021-00560-6
Awulachew, S. B., Yilma, A. D., Loulseged, M., Loiskandl, W., Ayana, M., & Alamirew, T. (2007). Water resources and irrigation development in Ethiopia (Vol. 123). IWMI.
Babovic, V., & Bojkov, V. H. (2001). Runoff modeling with genetic programming and artificial neural networks. D2K Technical Report 0401-1. Danish Hydraulics Institute, Denmark.
Beck, H. E., Zimmermann, N. E., McVicar, T. R., Vergopolan, N., Berg, A., & Wood, E. F. (2018). Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution. Scientific Data, 5, 180214. doi: 10.1038/sdata.2018.214
Belay, T., & Mengistu, D. A. (2021). Impacts of land use/land cover and climate changes on soil erosion in Muga watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin (Abay), Ethiopia. Ecol. Process. 10 (1), 1–21 (p. 68). doi: 10.1186/s13717-021-00339-9
Berhanu, B., Seleshi, Y., & Melesse, A. M. (2013). GIS-based hydrological zones and soil geo-database of Ethiopia. Catena, 104, 21–31. doi: 10.1016/j.catena.2012.12.007
Butts, M. B., et al. (2004). "An evaluation of the performance of catchment-scale models." Journal of Hydrology, 293(1-4), 256-279. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.01.010
Beven, K. J., & Freer, J. (2001). Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology. Journal of Hydrology, 249(1–4), 11–29. doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00421-8
Chaemiso, S. E., Abebe, A., & Pingale, S. M. (2016). Assessment of the impact of climate change on surface hydrological processes using SWAT: a case study of Omo-Gibe river basin, Ethiopia. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 2(4), 1–15. doi: 10.1007/s40808-016-0257-9
Chen, J., Theller, L., Gitau, M. W., Engel, B. A., & Harbor, J. M. (2017). Urbanization impacts on surface runoff of the contiguous United States. Journal of Environmental Management, 187, 470–481. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.11.017.
Congalton, R. G., & Green, K. (2019). Assessing the accuracy of remotely sensed data: principles and practices. CRC press. doi: 10.1201/9781420055139
Degefu, M. A., & Bewket, W. (2014). Variability and trends in rainfall amount and extreme event indices in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia. Regional environmental change, 14(2), 799-810. doi: 10.1007/s10113-013-0538-z
Derebe, M. A., Hatiye, S. D., & Asres, L. A. (2022). Dynamics and Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes Using Geospatial Techniques in Abelti Watershed, Omo Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia. Advances in Agriculture, 10, 1–9. doi: 10.1155/2022/1862461
DHI. (2023). "MIKE SHE – Integrated Catchment Modeling." DHI Group. Link
Elias, E. (2017). Characteristics of Nitisols: Soils of the Ethiopian Highlands. Soil Atlas of Africa, Ethiopia Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources, pp. 132-133. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.2553416
FAO (2001). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy. ISBN 92-5-104628-X
Foody, G. M. (2002). Status of land cover classification accuracy assessment. Remote Sensing of Environment, 80(2), 185–201. doi: 10.1016/S0034-4257(01)00295-4
Gebrehiwot, S. G., Taye, M. T., & Bishop, K. (2022). Integrated water resources management under climate change in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 40, 100982. doi: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.100982
Gebremicael, T. G., Mohamed, Y. A., & Hagos, E. Y. (2017). Temporal and spatial changes of rainfall and streamflow in the Upper Tekezē–Atbara river basin, Ethiopia. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21(4), 2127–2142. doi: 10.5194/hess-21-2127-2017
Gebremichael, A., Kebede, A., & Woyessa, Y. E. (2024). Impact of climate change on water resource potential and sediment yield of the Gibe III watershed, Omo-Gibe Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 15(3), 902–920. doi: 10.2166/wcc.2024.292
Gelfan, A., Motovilov, Y., & Gustafsson, D. (2017). Testing the robustness of the physically-based ECOMAG model with respect to changing conditions. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62(1), 40–54. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.967694
Getachew, B., Manjunatha, B. R., & Bhat, H. G. (2021). Modeling projected impacts of climate and land use/land cover changes on hydrological responses in the Lake Tana Basin, upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of Hydrology, 595, 125974.
Gisha Kuma, H., Mekonnen Chinasho, E., & Asha Tolke, A. (2024). Evaluation of hydrological responses to climate change in the Gibe Gojeb catchment, southwestern Ethiopia. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 15(5), 2232–2243. doi: 10.2166/wcc.2024.656
Gitima, G., Teshome, M., Kassie, M., & Jakubus, M. (2023). Quantifying the impacts of spatiotemporal land use and land cover changes on soil loss across agroecologies and slope categories using GIS and RUSLE model in Zoa watershed, southwest Ethiopia. Ecological Processes, 12(1), 24.
Graham, D. N., & Butts, M. B. (2005). "Flexible, integrated watershed modelling with MIKE SHE." In Watershed Models (pp. 245-272). CRC Press.
Gries, T., Redlin, M., & Ugarte, J. E. (2019). Human-induced climate change: the impact of land-use change. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 135(15), 1031–1044. doi: 10.1007/s00704-018-2422-8
Guduru, J. U., Jilo, N. B., Rabba, Z. A., & Namara, W. G. (2023). Rainfall-runoff modeling using HEC-HMS model for Meki River watershed, rift valley basin, Ethiopia. Journal of African Earth Sciences, 197, 104743. doi: 10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2022.104743
Gupta, A. K., & Govindarajan, V. (2000). Knowledge flows within multinational corporations. Strategic Management Journal, 21(4), 473–496. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0266(200004)21:4<473::AID-SMJ84>3.0.CO;2-I
Gupta, H. V., et al. (2009). "Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling." Journal of Hydrology, 377(1-2), 80-91. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003
Guzha, A. C., Rufino, M. C., Okoth, S., Jacobs, S., & Nóbrega, R. L. B. (2018). Impacts of land use and land cover change on surface runoff, discharge and low flows: Evidence from East Africa. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 15, 49–67. doi: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.11.005
Haddeland, I., Heinke, J., Biemans, H., Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Hanasaki, N., Konzmann, M., Ludwig, F., Masaki, Y., Schewe, J., Stacke, T., Tessler, Z. D., Wada, Y., & Wisser, D. (2014). Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3251–3256. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222475110
Han, Q., Xue, L., Qi, T., Liu, Y., Yang, M., Chu, X., & Liu, S. (2023). Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate and Land-Use Changes on Streamflow under Multiple Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper Reaches of the Tarim River in Northwest China. Water, 16(1), 100. doi: 10.3390/w16010100
Hussen, A. A., Birhanu, B. S., & Melesse, A. M. (2021). Hydrological impacts of climate change on the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. Hydrology, 8(1), 12. doi: 10.3390/hydrology8010012
Ismail, M. H., & Jusoff, K. (2008). Satellite data classification accuracy assessment based from reference dataset. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology. International Journal of Geological and Environmental Engineering, 2(3), 23–29.
Kasei, C. N., Diekkrüger, B., & Leemhuis, C. (2010). Drought frequency in the Volta Basin of West Africa. Sustainability, 2(7), 2175-2196. doi: 10.3390/su2072175
Kumar, M., Denis, D. M., Kundu, A., Joshi, N., & Suryavanshi, S. (2022). Understanding land use/land cover and climate change impacts on hydrological components of Usri watershed, India. Applied Water Science, 12(3), 1–14. doi: 10.1007/s13201-021-01547-6
Legates, D. R., & McCabe, G. J. (1999). "Evaluating the use of 'goodness‐of‐fit' measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation." Water Resources Research, 35(1), 233-241. doi: 10.1029/1998WR900018
Li, S., Zhao, W. X., Yin, E. J., & Wen, J.-R. (2019). A neural citation count prediction model based on peer review text. In Proceedings of the 2019 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing and the 9th International Joint Conference on Natural Language Processing (EMNLP-IJCNLP) (pp. 4914–4924). Association for Computational Linguistics. doi: 10.18653/v1/D19-1497
Locatelli, L., Mark, O., Mikkelsen, P. S., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Deletic, A., Roldin, M., & Binning, P. J. (2017). Hydrologic impact of urbanization with extensive stormwater infiltration. Journal of Hydrology, 544, 524–537. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.030
Loliyana, V. D., & Patel, P. L. (2018). Performance evaluation and parameters sensitivity of a distributed hydrological model for a semi-arid catchment in India. Journal of Earth System Science, 127(117), 1–26. doi: 10.1007/s12040-018-1021-5
Lu, D., & Weng, Q. (2007). A survey of image classification methods and techniques for improving classification performance. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 28(5), 823–870. doi: 10.1080/01431160600746456
Lucas-Borja, M. E., Carrà, B. G., Nunes, J. P., Bernard-Jannin, L., Zema, D. A., & Zimbone, S. M. (2020). Impacts of land-use and climate changes on surface runoff in a tropical forest watershed (Brazil). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65(11), 1956–1973. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2020.1787417
Lukas, P., Melesse, A. M., & Kenea, T. T. (2023). Prediction of future land use/land cover changes using a coupled CA-ANN model in the upper omo–gibe river basin, Ethiopia. Remote Sensing, 15(4), 1148. doi: 10.3390/rs15041148
Malede, D. A., Alamirew, T., & Andualem, T. G. (2023). Integrated and Individual Impacts of Land Use Land Cover and Climate Changes on Hydrological Flows over Birr River Watershed, Abbay Basin, Ethiopia. Water (Switzerland), 15(1). doi: 10.3390/w15010166
Mekuria, E. T. (2022). Assessment of Water Balance of Deme Watershed, Omo-Gibe Basin, Ethiopia Using SWAT Model and ARC-GIS for Water Resources Management. Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science, 11(6), 86–98.
Mekuria, E. T. (2022). Assessment of spatial soil erosion using RUSLE model integration with GIS and RS tools a case study of Gojeb catchment, Omo-Gibe Basin, Ethiopia. International Journal of Environmental Protection and Policy, 10(5), 130-139. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepp.20221005.13
Mengistu, D. T., & Sorteberg, A. (2012). Sensitivity of SWAT simulated streamflow to climatic changes within the Eastern Nile River basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(2), 391–407. doi: 10.5194/hess-16-391-2012
Milly, P. C. D., Dunne, K. A., & Vecchia, A. V. (2005). "Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate."Nature, 438(7066), 347-350.doi: 10.1038/nature04312
Moriasi, D. N., Arnold, J. G., Van Liew, M. W., Bingner, R. L., Harmel, R. D., & Veith, T. L. (2007). Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Transactions of the ASABE, 50(3), 885–900. doi: 10.13031/2013.23153
Nath, S. S., Mishra, G., Kar, J., Chakraborty, S., & Dey, N. (2014). A survey of image classification methods and techniques. 2014 International Conference on Control, Instrumentation, Communication and Computational Technologies (ICCICCT), 554–557.
Nigusie, A., & Dananto, M. (2021). Impact of land use/land cover change on hydrologic processes in Dijo watershed, central rift valley, Ethiopia. International Journal of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, 13(1), 37–48. doi: 10.5897/IJWREE2020.0956
Orkodjo, T. P., Kranjac-Berisavijevic, G., & Abagale, F. K. (2022). Impact of climate change on future precipitation amounts, seasonal distribution, and streamflow in the Omo-Gibe basin, Ethiopia. Heliyon, 8(6), e09711. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e09711
Ortiz, D. I., Piche-Ovares, M., Romero-Vega, L. M., Wagman, J., & Troyo, A. (2021). The impact of deforestation, urbanization, and changing land use patterns on the ecology of mosquito and tick-borne diseases in Central America. Insects, 13(1), 20. doi: 10.3390/insects13010020
Paudel, S., & Benjankar, R. (2022). Integrated hydrological modeling to analyze the effects of precipitation on surface water and groundwater hydrologic processes in a small watershed. Hydrology, 9(2), 37. doi: 10.3390/hydrology9020037
Sahoo, G. B., Ray, C., & De Carlo, E. H. (2006b). Use of neural network to predict flash flood and attendant water qualities of a mountainous stream on Oahu, Hawaii. Journal of Hydrology, 327(3–4), 525–538. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.11.059
Shang, X., Jiang, X., & Jia, R. (2019). Land Use and Climate Change Effects on Surface Runoff Variations in the Upper Heihe River Basin. doi: 10.3390/w11020344
Singh, V. P., & Woolhiser, D. A. (2002). "Mathematical modeling of watershed hydrology." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 7(4), 270-292. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2002)7:4(270)
Talib, A., & Randhir, T. O. (2017). Climate change and land use impacts on hydrologic processes of watershed systems. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 8(3), 363–374. doi: 10.2166/wcc.2017.064
Tarekegn, M. M., Uhlenbrook, S., Wenninger, J., & Savenije, H. H. (2021). Investigating the responses of hydrological processes to land use/cover changes in an Ethiopian river basin using a distributed hydrological model. Water, 13(1), 101. doi: 10.3390/w13010101
Tassew, B. G., Belete, M. A., & Miegel, K. (2019). Application of HEC-HMS model for flow simulation in the Lake Tana basin: The case of Gilgel Abay catchment, upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Hydrology, 6(1), 21. doi: 10.3390/hydrology6010021
Taye, M. T., Dyer, E., Hirpa, F. A., & Charles, K. (2018). Climate change impact on water resources in the Awash basin, Ethiopia. Water, 10(11), 1560. doi: 10.3390/w10111560
Teshome, A., & Zhang, J. (2019). The role of hydropower in the economic development of Ethiopia and the implications for Nile river basin. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 114, 109299. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2019.109299
Todini, E. (2008). A model conditional processor to assess predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting. International Journal of River Basin Management, 6(2), 123–137.doi: 10.1080/15715124.2008.9635342
Truneh, A., Gebremichael, M., & Ayana, A. (2023). Impact of climate variability and land use/land cover changes on hydrological processes in the Rift Valley Lakes Basin, Ethiopia. Water Resources Management, 37(1), 381–397. doi: 10.1007/s11269-022-03359-5
Vázquez, R. F., Feyen, L., Feyen, J., & Refsgaard, J. C. (2002). Effect of grid size on effective parameters and model performance of the MIKE‐SHE code. Hydrological Processes, 16(2), 355–372. doi: 10.1002/hyp.334
Wagener, T., & Gupta, H. V. (2005). Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 19(6), 378–387. doi: 10.1007/s00477-005-0006-5
Werede, K. Z., Lohani, T. K., Neka, B. G., & Geremew, G. B. (2024). Modeling streamflow responses to land use and land cover change using MIKE SHE model in the upper Omo Gibe catchment of Ethiopia. World Water Policy, 10(3), 986-1009. doi: 10.1002/wwp2.12186
Woldesenbet, T. A., Elagib, N. A., Ribbe, L., & Heinrich, J. (2020). Hydrological responses to land use/land cover change in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Science of the Total Environment, 742, 140504. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140504
World Meteorological Organization (WMO). (2008). "Guide to Hydrological Practices: Volume I, Hydrology – From Measurement to Hydrological Information." WMO-No. 168.
Xia, Y., Koster, R. D., & Huang, M. (2020). Evaluation of monthly root‐zone soil moisture from satellite observations and modeling: Implications for drought monitoring in the U.S. Great Plains. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21(1), 5-23. doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0115.1
Yin, J., He, F., Jiu Xiong, Y., & Yu Qiu, G. (2017). Effects of land use/land cover and climate changes on surface runoff in a semi-humid and semi-arid transition zone in northwest China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21(1), 183–196. doi: 10.5194/hess-21-183-2017
Zhang, Q., Li, J., Singh, V. P., & Xiao, M. (2013). Spatio-temporal relations between temperature and precipitation regimes: Implications for temperature-induced changes in the hydrological cycle. Global and Planetary Change, 111, 57–76. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.08.012
Zhang, Z., Wang, S., Sun, G., McNulty, S. G., Zhang, H., Li, J., Zhang, M., Klaghofer, E., & Strauss, P. (2008). Evaluation of the MIKE SHE model for application in the Loess Plateau, China 1. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 44(5), 1108–1120. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00244.x
Zhang, R., Pang, C., Zhang, C., Wang, S., He, Z., Sun, Y., Wu, H., & Wang, H. (2021). Correcting Chinese spelling errors with phonetic pre-training. In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL-IJCNLP 2021 (pp. 2250–2261). Association for Computational Linguistics. doi: 10.18653/v1/2021.findings-acl.198

فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 02 مرداد 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 19 مرداد 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 19 مرداد 1404

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار