Modeling streamflow dynamics under climate and land use shifts using MIKE SHE in the upper Omo Gibe catchment, Ethiopia

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 PhD scholar in Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia

2 Professor, Faculty of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia

3 Associate Professor, Faculty of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia

10.22098/mmws.2025.17906.1632

چکیده

This study utilized the MIKE SHE hydrological model to analyze the combined effects of shifting climatic conditions and land use/land cover (LULC) changes on river discharge dynamics. We developed three distinct scenarios by integrating three climate data periods (1990–2000, 2001–2010, and 2011–2020) with three LULC maps (1990, 2005, and 2020). The model was systematically calibrated and validated, achieving strong performance metrics. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were 0.83 and 0.82 for calibration, and 0.80 and 0.81 for validation, respectively, demonstrating the model's reliability in simulating the catchment's hydrological processes. Our findings reveal a substantial influence of both LULC and climate changes, with the most notable impacts observed during the 2001–2010 and 2011–2020 periods. LULC alterations increased surface runoff by 10.29% and 2.38%, while decreasing subsurface flow by 6.03% and 6.82%, and reducing evapotranspiration by 0.75% and 5.49%. Climate variations further amplified these effects, augmenting surface runoff by 2.14% and 12.72%. This was accompanied by corresponding reductions in subsurface flow of 7.43% and 10.40%, and in evapotranspiration of 10.03% and 21.65%. Interestingly, both climate and LULC changes promoted subsurface flow and evapotranspiration during the 2001–2010 periods before exhibiting a declining trend in 2011–2020. The results underscore that the expansion of settlements and the reduction of forest and shrub land have intensified streamflow while lowering subsurface flow and evapotranspiration. These findings emphasize the critical need for integrated climate and land use considerations in future water resource management strategies.

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 02 مرداد 1404
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