Projection of temperature and radiation in arid and semi-arid climates under shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios

Bagheri Khaneghahi, Marzieh; Hezarjaribi, Abutaleb; Kamali, Mohammad Ismaeil; Zamani, Fatemeh

doi:10.22098/mmws.2025.17682.1615

Projection of temperature and radiation in arid and semi-arid climates under shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios

نوع مقاله : Special issue on "Climate Change and Effects on Water and Soil"

نویسندگان

¹ PhD student in irrigation and drainage engineering, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Water and Soil, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran.

² Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Water and Soil, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran.

³ Assistant Professor, Soil and Water Research Department, Mazandaran Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Sari, Iran.

⁴ Assistant Professor, Artificial Intelligence Department, Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Babol Noshirvani University of Technology, Babol, Iran.

10.22098/mmws.2025.17682.1615

چکیده

The phenomenon of climate change, caused by both anthropogenic and natural factors, makes the forecasting of future climate and its impact on the proper management of agriculture, water, and soil resources, as well as watershed management, the environment, and desertification control, crucial. Accordingly, this study investigates future temperature and solar radiation in arid (Mashhad and Ahvaz) and semi-arid (Kermanshah) climates in Iran. First, daily climatic data for the baseline period (1991-2020) were obtained from synoptic stations in the study areas. Subsequently, temperature and solar radiation projections were generated for the future periods of 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080 using LARS-WG version 8, based on the HadGEM3 climate model under the SSP scenarios. The model’s high accuracy in downscaling and its excellent performance in predicting climatic parameters across all stations were validated by high R² values (99%) and NS efficiency coefficient (99%), alongside low RMSE values (less than 30%). Results indicated that, compared to the 30-year baseline period, the average maximum temperature over the next 60 years is projected to increase by 0.37, 1.48, and 2.73°C (Mashhad); 1.09, 1.47, and 2.3°C (Ahvaz); and 1.3, 1.75, and 2.65°C (Kermanshah) under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Similarly, the average minimum temperature is expected to rise by 1.01 °C, 1.89 °C, and 2.8 °C (Mashhad); 1.57 °C, 2.17 °C, and 3.24 °C (Ahvaz); and 1.8 °C, 2.43 °C, and 3.33 °C (Kermanshah), respectively. However, changes in mean annual solar radiation did not show a consistent pattern. The monthly trends for temperature and radiation were significant at a 95% confidence level for most months. The results suggest that future temperature increases may lead to a decline in the quantity and quality of agricultural products, reduced water resources, and increased soil erosion. Future changes in solar radiation will also affect photosynthesis, evapotranspiration, energy production, and fossil fuel consumption. Therefore, to mitigate the negative impacts and adapt to future climatic conditions in the study areas, managers and planners should adopt optimal strategies. These strategies include cultivating heat- and light-resistant crops, optimizing irrigation systems, designing watershed management systems to prevent water loss, and promoting sustainable land development.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

هواشناسی کشاورزی

مراجع

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