ارزیابی پیامدهای ناشی از تغییر اقلیم تحت دو سناریوی شرایط موجود و انجام اقدامات کنترلی

نوع مقاله : مروری

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مطالعات راهبردی، دانشکده دفاع، دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه عملیات ویژه و شناسایی ساحل، دانشکده تفنگداران دریایی، دانشگاه علوم دریایی امام خمینی (ره) نوشهر، مازندران، ایران

3 کارشناس ارشد، گروه پدافند غیرعامل، دانشکده تفنگداران دریایی، دانشگاه علوم دریایی امام خمینی (ره) نوشهر، مازندران، ایران

4 استادیار، گروه پدافند غیرعامل، دانشکده تفنگداران دریایی، دانشگاه علوم دریایی امام خمینی (ره) نوشهر، مازندران، ایران

چکیده

فراتر از وضعیت جوی، پیامدهای ناشی از گرمایش جهانی نوع جدید و بسیار متفاوتی از چالش‌ها را نشان می‌دهند. تغییرات اقلیمی که خود ناشی از گرمایش جهانی است، پیامدهای آن در بسیاری از کشورها به یکی از مهم‌ترین نگرانی‌ها و سیاست‌های عمومی تبدیل شده است. این مطالعه درصدد این است، پیامدهای مختلف ناشی از گرمایش جهانی را با تأکید بر بعد نظامی بررسی کند. مطالعة حاضر در قالب دو سناریوی تعریف شده انجام گرفته است. سناریوی اول برای حالتی در نظر گرفته شده که هیچ اقدام کنترلی برای جلوگیری از پیامدهای گرمایش جهانی صورت نپذیرد و سناریوی دوم برای حالتی است که اقدامات کنترلی برای جلوگیری از پیامدهای گرمایش جهانی صورت می‌پذیرد. در سناریوی اول در مرحلة نخست، با استفاده از منابع و مقالات کتابخانه‌ای متعدد و معتبر داخلی و خارجی پیامدهای اولیه و اصلی گرمایش جهانی مشخص شد. در مرحلة دوم این سناریو با برگزاری جلسه با تعداد پنج نفر از خبرگان متخصص در این امر سایر پیامدهای مختلف گرمایش جهانی مشخص و در کنار پیامدهای گردآوری ‌شده از مرحلة اول به‌صورت کلی دسته‌بندی شد؛ در سناریوی دوم هم با برگزاری جلسه خبرگی (پنج نفر از خبرگان متخصص در این امر) اقدامات کنترلی برای جلوگیری از پیامدهای گرمایش و پیامدهای گرمایش جهانی بعد از اقدامات کنترلی مشخص شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که با اقدامات کنترلی فقط پیامدهای طبیعی ناشی از گرمایش جهانی ظهور خواهد کرد و می‌توان گفت تا حد خوبی امنیت را تضمین و عملاً پیامدهایی که بعد نظامی را درگیر کند به کم‌ترین مقدار خود می‌رسد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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