شواهد و پیامدهای رویداد سیل در ایران از پیش از تاریخ تا کنون

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانش‌آموخته دکتری باستان‌شناسی پیش از تاریخ/ گروه تاریخ و باستان‌شناسی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران

چکیده

سیل یک رویداد مخرب است که هم به‌علل طبیعی و هم به‌‌دلیل مدیریت نادرست عوامل انسانی رخ می‌دهد. در دوره‌های تغییر اقلیم، عمدتاً به‌دلیل بارش‌های حدی، سیلاب‌های ویران‌گری اتفاق افتاده‌اند، به‌طوری‌که منجر به خسارات و زیان‌های اقتصادی سنگین، آوارگی، مهاجرت‌، شیوع بیماری‌های همه‌گیر و مرگ‌ومیر بسیاری از مردم شده‌اند. پژوهش‌های روان‌شناختی مرتبط با گرمایش کنونی زمین نیز نشان‌دهنده بروز و یا تشدید اختلالات روانی پس از وقوع این رویداد طبیعی هستند. در همین راستا، در این پژوهش به‌منظور روشن‌تر شدن ابعاد گوناگون رخداد سیل، پیامدهای ناگوار اقتصادی، اجتماعی و سلامتی آن مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. هم‌چنین، با بهره‌گیری از پژوهش‌های دیرین‌اقلیم، باستان‌شناسی و تاریخی، نمونه‌هایی از این رویداد که اثرات مخرب گسترده‌ای به‌جا گذاشته‌اند، ارائه شده‌اند. گردآوری رویدادهای وقوع سیل از اسناد تاریخی و یافتن شواهد سیلاب در بین لایه‌های فرهنگی محوطه‌های باستانی در کنار پژوهش‌های دیرین‌اقلیم، می‌تواند نتایج دقیق‌تری از شرایط اقلیمی و محیطی گذشته حاصل نماید. در بررسی‌های رسوب‌شناسی محیطی برخی از محوطه‌های باستانی ایران، شواهد وقوع سیلاب‌های سهمگینی متعلق به اواسط و اواخر هزاره چهارم قبل از میلاد یافت شده‌ است و در کتب تاریخی دوره اسلامی نیز برخی از این رخدادها گزارش شده‌اند. این وقایع با دوره‌های تغییر اقلیم گرمایش قرون وسطی و عصر یخبندان کوچک هم‌زمانی دارند و در ایران بیش‌تر به‌دلیل بارش‌های حدی و طغیان رودخانه‌ها و مسیل‌ها رخ داده‌اند. در نتیجه، اگر پیش‌گیری و مهار سیل در ایران به‌طور کارآمد و مؤثر مدیریت نشود، بارش‌های حدی مرتبط با تغییر اقلیم کنونی می‌توانند اثرات منفی اجتماعی- اقتصادی جبران‌ناپذیری به جا بگذارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


Ahern, M., Kovats, R.S., Wilkinson, P., Few, R., & Matthies, F. (2005). Global health impacts of floods: epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiologic Reviews, 27(1), 36-46.
Alley, R.B. (2004). GISP2 ice core temperature and accumulation data NOAA. ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/isotopes/gisp2_temp_accum_alley2000.txt.
Alley, R.B., Mayewski, P.A., Sowers, T., Stuiver, M., Taylor, K.C., & Clark, P.U. (1997). Holocene climatic instability: A prominent, widespread event 8200 yr ago, Geology, 25(6), 483-486.
American Psychiatric Association, APA. (2013). Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (DSM-5®). American Psychiatric Publication, 991 pages.
Andersen, K.K., Azuma, N., Barnola, J.M., Bigler, M., Biscaye, P., Caillon, N., Chappellaz, J., Clausen, H.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H., & Flückiger, J. (2004). High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period. Nature, 431(7005), 147.
Andrews, J.E., Carolin, S.A., Peckover, E.N., Marca, A., Al-Omari, S., & Rowe, P.J. (2020). Holocene stable isotope record of insolation and rapid climate change in a stalagmite from the Zagros of Iran. Quaternary Science Reviews, 241, 106433.
Asakereh, H., Khoshakhlag, F., & Shamohamadi, Z. (2017). Phase extraction of synoptic patterns with positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its impact on the winter precipitation in Iran. Hydrogeomorphology, 3(9), 113-137 (in Persian).
Baker, V.R. (2008). Paleoflood hydrology: Origin, progress, prospects. Geomorphology, 101(1-2), 1-13.
Bar-Hebraeus, G.A. (1985). History of Mokhtasar al-Doval, translated by M.A. Tajpour and H. Riyazi, Tehran, Information (in Persian).
Bar-Matthews, M., & Ayalon, A. (2011). Mid-Holocene climate variations revealed by high-resolution speleothem records from Soreq Cave, Israel and their correlation with cultural changes. The Holocene, 21(1), 163-171.
Benito, G., O’Connor, J.E., & Shroder, J. (2020). Quantitative paleoflood hydrology. Treatise on Geomorphology, 9, 459-474.
Bettini, G. (2014). Climate migration as an adaption strategy: de-securitizing climate-induced migration or making the unruly governable?. Critical Studies on Security, 2(2), 180-195.
Blazeri, A. (1958). Fatouh Al-Baldan, translated by M. Tavakol, Tehran, Silver (in Persian).
Bond, G., Kromer, B., Beer, J., Muscheler, R., Evans, M. N., Showers, W., Hoffmann, S., Lotti-Bond, R., Hajdas, I., & Bonani, G. (2001). Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene. Science, 294(5549), 2130-2136.
Bond, G., Showers, W., Cheseby, M., Lotti, R., Almasi, P., DeMenocal, P., Priore, P., Cullen, H., Hajdas, I., & Bonani, G. (1997). A pervasive millennial-scale cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and glacial climates. Science, 278(5341), 1257-1266.
Bryant, E. (2013). Natural hazards, translated by D. Yarahmadi, Lorestan University (in Persian).
Chaychi Amirkhiz, A., & Shaikh Baikloo Islam, B. (2020). Climatic hazards of fourth millennium BC and cultural responses of human societies case study: Tehran Plain and Qomroud-Gharachay Basin. Journal of Research on Archaeometry, 6(1), 67-80 (in Persian).
Special Reporting Committee on Iran Floods (2019). The 2019 Iran floods narrative. https://nfr.ut.ac.ir/fa (in Persian).
Special Reporting Committee on Iran Floods (2020). Final Report: narration, analyses, lessons learnt and recommendations. https://nfr.ut.ac.ir/fa  (in Persian).
Cullen, H.M., deMenocal, P.B., Hemming, S., Hemming, G., Brown, F.H., Guilderson, T., & Sirocko, F. (2000). Climate change and the collapse of the Akkadian Empire: Evidence from the deep sea, Geology, 28(4), 379-382.
Du, W., FitzGerald, G.J., Clark, M., & Hou, X.Y. (2010). Health impacts of floods. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 25(3), 265-272.
Farajzadeh, M., & Baghbanan, P. (2018). Climate Risk Management. Tehran (in Persian).
Farajzadeh, M. (2013). Climatic hazards of Iran. Tehran, 348 pages (in Persian).
Fernandez, A., Black, J., Jones, M., Wilson, L., Salvador-Carulla, L., Astell-Burt, T., & Black, D. (2015). Flooding and mental health: a systematic mapping review. PLOS ONE, 10(4), e0119929.
Füssel, H.M., & Jol, A. (2012). Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012 an indicator-based report. Copenhagen, European Environment Agency. https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012
Ghayour, H.A. (1996). Floods and flood areas in Iran. Geographical Research, 40, 101-120 (in Persian).
Gurjazkaite, K., Routh, J., Djamali, M., Vaezi, A., Poher, Y., Beni, A.N., Tavakoli, V., & Kylin, H. (2018). Vegetation history and human-environment interactions through the late Holocene in Konar Sandal, SE Iran. Quaternary Science Reviews, 194, 143-155.
Hafiz-i Abru (1971). Zail-i Jameh Al-Tavarikh Rashidi. Bayani, K. (ed.). National Works Association Press. 386 pages.
Hamzeh, M., Mahmudy Gharaie, M., Alizadeh Lahijani, H., Moussavi Harami, R., & Djamali M. (2017). Aeolian sediments deposited in Lake Hamoun; the proxy of frequency and severity of dust storms in Sistan since the late glacial, Journal of Stratigraphy and Sedimentology Researches, 33(1), 1-24 (in Persian).
Haug, G.H., Günther, D., Peterson, L.C., Sigman, D.M., Hughen, K.A., & Aeschlimann, B. (2003). Climate and the collapse of Maya civilization, Science, 299(5613), 1731-1735.
Herget, J. (2020). Palaeostage indicators in rivers: an illustrated review. Pp. 187–211. In: Herget, J., & Fontana, A. (eds.). Palaeohydrology: Traces, Tracks and Trails of Extreme Events. Cham. Springer International Publishing.
History of Sistan (1987). Edited by M.T. Bahar, Tehran, Kalaleh Khavar (in Persian).
Ibn Asir, A. (1992). History of Kamel, translated by A. Halat and A. Khalili, 33 volumes, Tehran, Scientific Press Institute (in Persian).
Ibn Isfandiar, B. (1987). History of Tabarestan. edited by A. Iqbal, Tehran, Kalaleh Khavar (in Persian).
Isfahani Bandari, F. (1977). History of the Seljuk dynasty. edited by M.H. Jalili, Tehran, Iranian Culture Foundation (in Persian).
Iskandar Baig, T. (2003). History of Alam Aray-i Abbasi, edited by I. Afshar, Tehran, Amirkabir (in Persian).
Jonkman, S.N., & Vrijling, J.K. (2008). Loss of life due to floods. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 1(1), 43-56.
Jassim, R.Z., Al-Rawi, Y.T., & Habib, H.R. (2007). Holocene Aridification in Central Iraq. Iraqi Bulletin of Geology and Mining, 3(1), 1-9.
Kaboli, M.A. (1999). Archaeological Surveys of Qomroud. Tehran, Cultural Heritage Organization (Research Institute) (in Persian).
Kaniewski, D., Marriner, N., Bretschneider, J., Jans, G., Morhange, C., Cheddadi, R., Otto, T., Luce, F., & Van Campo, E. (2019). 300-year drought frames Late Bronze Age to Early Iron Age transition in the Near East: new palaeoecological data from Cyprus and Syria, Regional Environmental Change, 19(8), 2287-2297.
Kateb Yazdi, A.I.H. (2007). New History of Yazd. Amir Kabir Press, 316 pages (in Persian).
Kay, P.A., & Johnson, D.L. (1981). Estimation of Tigris-Euphrates streamflow from regional paleoenvironmental proxy data. Climatic Change, 3(3), 251-263.
   - ­­Kennett, D.J., Breitenbach, S.F., Aquino, V.V., Asmerom, Y., Awe, J., Baldini, J.U., Bartlein, P., Culleton, B.J., Ebert, C., Jazwa, C., & Macri, M.J. (2012). Development and disintegration of Maya political systems in response to climate change, Science, 338(6108), 788-791.
Khorsandi, H. (2016). Flood Damage Investigation, Journal of the Ministry of Energy, 164 (in Persian).
Khoshakhlagh, F., Ghanbari, N., & Masoum Poursamakoush, J. (2008). The Study of North Atlantic Oscillation Effect on Temperature and precipitation Regimes of Southern shores of Caspian Sea, Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 66, 57-70 (in Persian).
Kochel, R.C., Baker, V.R., & Patton, P.C. (1982). Paleohydrology of southwestern Texas. Water Resources Research, 18(4), 1165-1183.
Koenig, T.A., Bruce, J.L., O'Connor, J., McGee, B.D., Holmes Jr, R.R., Hollins, R., Forbes, B.T., Kohn, M.S., Schellekens, M., Martin, Z.W., & Peppler, M.C. (2016). Identifying and preserving high-water mark data (No. 3-A24). US Geological Survey.
Kundzewicz, Z.W., & Kundzewicz, W.J. (2005). Mortality in flood disasters. Pp. 197-206, In: Extreme weather events and public health responses. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
Kuzucuoğlu, C., Dörfler, W., Kunesch, S., & Goupille, F. (2011). Mid-to Late-Holocene climate change in central Turkey: The Tecer Lake record. The Holocene, 21(1), 173-188.
Lockhart, L. (1960). Persian cities. London, Luzac, https://www.amazon.com/Persian-Cities-L-Lockhart/dp/0718901479
Lüthi, D., Le Floch, M., Bereiter, B., Blunier, T., Barnola, J.M., Siegenthaler, U., Raynaud, D., Jouzel, J., Fischer, H., Kawamura, K., & Stocker, T.F. )2008(. High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present. Nature, 453(7193), 379-382.
Maghsoudi, M., Zamanzadeh, S.M., Navidfar, A., Mohammadi, A., & Yosefi Zoshk, R. (2016). Environmental conditions' study governing on ancient sites with an emphasis on grain size sediment river analysis (Case study: Ancient sites of Meymanatabad and Mafinabad). Quaternary Journal of Iran, 2(1), 41-51 (in Persian).
Maghsoudi, M., & Mohammadnejad Arouq, V. (2011). Geomorphology of alluvial fans, Tehran University Publishing Institute (in Persian).
Mahjouri, I. (1966). History of Mazandaran. Vol. II, Sari Press, 411 pages (in Persian).
Mas'udi, Abu al-Hasan Ali ibn al-Husayn (1409 AH). Morouj Al-Dhahab va Al-Maaden Al-Jowhar, Volume 1, Dar al-Hijra.
McCord, V.A. (1996). Fluvial process dendrogeomorphology: Reconstruction of flood events from the Southwestern United States using flood-scarred trees. Pp. 689–699. In: Dean, J.S., Meko, D.M., & Swetnam, T.W. (eds.). Tree-rings, Environment and Humanity. Tucson, AZ. Radiocarbon. Special Issue.
McMichael, A.J. (2012). Insights from past millennia into climatic impacts on human health and survival. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(13), 4730-4737.
Melville, C.P. (1983). The 1934 floods in Tabriz, NW Iran. Disasters, 7(2), 107-117.
Melville, C.P. (1984). Meteorological hazards and disasters in Iran: a preliminary survey to 1950. Iran, 22(1), 113-150.
Mirzaei, S., & Sadoddin, A. (2019). Comprehensive flood financial losses assessment framework (direct, indirect, tangible and intangible): Flood incident on 17 April 2016, Nodeh Khandooz, the Gorganrood River Basin, Iran, Disaster Prevention and Management Knowledge (quarterly), 9(4), 383-392.
Mohammadi, H. (2010). Atmospheric hazards. Tehran, University of Tehran (in Persian).
Mostowfi, H. (1985). History of Gozideh. Navaie, A. (ed.). Tehran, Amirkabir Press (in Persian).
Nabi Bidhandi, G., Mohammadnejad, S., & Ebadati, F. (2007). Concepts and Consequences of Climate Change with a Review of the Kyoto Protocol Considerations, Tehran, University of Tehran (in Persian).
Neumann, J., & Parpola, S. (1987). Climatic change and the eleventh-tenth-century eclipse of Assyria and Babylonia. Journal of Near Eastern Studies, 46(3), 161-182.
Ouellet-Bernier, M., & deVernal, A. (2019). Proxy Indicators of Climate in the Past. Pp. 41-76. In: Chiotis, E. (Ed.). Climate Changes in the Holocene: Impacts and Human Adaptation. CRC Press.
Palinkas, L.A. (2020). The Future of Climigration, Pp. 203-215, In: Global Climate Change, Population Displacement, and Public Health, Cham. Springer.
Sabokkhiz, F., Seif, A., Ramasht, M., & Djamali, M. (2019). Reconstruction environmental changes of Maharlou Lake in Holocene. Quaternary Journal of Iran, 5(2), 143-161 (in Persian).
Schmidt, E. (1931). Excavations at Fara, 1931. Museum Journal, 22, 193-245.
Shaikh Baikloo Islam, B., Chaychi Amirkhiz, A., Valipour, H., & Safaierad, R. (2020). Study on the effects of the Mid-Holocene climatic changes on Sialk III Societies in North Central Iran based on environmental sedimentology of Mafin Abad, Islamshahr. Journal of Archaeological Studies, 12(3), 143-166 (in Persian).
Shaikh Baikloo Islam, B. (2019). Consequences of global climate change on mental health. 1th International Conference on Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation, 11 June 2019, Kharazmi University, Pp. 1-13 (in Persian).
Shaikh Baikloo Islam, B., Chaychi Amirkhiz, A., & Valipour, H. (2016). On the possible correlation between the collapse of Sialk IV and climatological events during the Middle–Late Holocene. Iranian Journal of Archaeological Studies, 6(1), 45-57.
Sharifi, A., Pourmand, A., Canuel, E.A., Ferer-Tyler, E., Peterson, L.C., Aichner, B., Feakins, S.J., Daryaee, T., Djamali, M., Beni, A.N., & Lahijani, H.A. (2015). Abrupt climate variability since the last deglaciation based on a high-resolution, multi-proxy peat record from NW Iran: The hand that rocked the Cradle of Civilization?. Quaternary Science Reviews, 123, 215-230.
Shumilovskikh, L.S., Hopper, K., Djamali, M., Ponel, P., Demory, F., Rostek, F., Tachikawa, K., Bittmann, F., Golyeva, A., Guibal, F., & Andrieu-Ponel, V. (2016). Landscape evolution and agro-sylvo-pastoral activities on the Gorgan Plain (NE Iran) in the last 6000 years. The Holocene, 26(10), 1676-1691.
Staubwasser, M., & Weiss, H. (2006). Holocene climate and cultural evolution in late prehistoric–early historic West Asia. Quaternary Research, 66(3), 372-387.
Stevens, L.R., Ito, E., Schwalb, A., & Wright, H.E. (2006). Timing of atmospheric precipitation in the Zagros Mountains inferred from a multi-proxy record from Lake Mirabad, Iran. Quaternary Research, 66(3), 494-500.
Stevens, L.R., Wright Jr, H.E., & Ito, E. (2001). Proposed changes in seasonality of climate during the Lateglacial and Holocene at Lake Zeribar, Iran. The Holocene, 11(6), 747-755.
Svensson, A., Andersen, K.K., Bigler, M., Clausen, H.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Davies, S.M., Johnsen, S.J., Muscheler, R., Parrenin, F., Rasmussen, S.O., & Roethlisberger, R. (2008). A 60000 year Greenland stratigraphic ice core chronology, Climate of the Past, 4, 47-54.
Tatoy, G., & Qazvini, A. (2003). History of Alfi. Tabatabai Majd, G. (ed.). Tehran, Scientific and Cultural Press (in Persian).
Toulabi Nejad. M., Hejazizadeh, Z., Bosak, A., & bazmi, N. (2018). The effects of North Atlantic Oscillation on the atmospheric middle level Anomaly and precipitation of Iran.Case study: west of Iran. Researches in Geographical Sciences, 18(49), 19-35 (in Persian).
Watelin, L.C. (1934). Excavations at Kish. Vol. IV. Paris: P. Geuthner, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0035869X00085531.
Weiss, H. (Ed.). (2017). Megadrought and collapse: from early agriculture to Angkor, Oxford University Press.
Weiss, H., Courty, M.A., Wetterstrom, W., Guichard, F., Senior, L., Meadow, R., & Curnow, A. (1993). The genesis and collapse of third millennium north Mesopotamian civilization. Science, 261(5124), 995-1004.
Weninger, B., Alram-Stern, E., Bauer, E., Clare, L., Danzeglocke, U., Jöris, O., Kubatzki, C., Rollefson, G., Todorova, H., & van Andel, T. (2006). Climate forcing due to the 8200 cal yr BP event observed at Early Neolithic sites in the eastern Mediterranean. Quaternary Research, 66(3), 401-420.
Wick, L., Lemcke, G., & Sturm, M. (2003). Evidence of Lateglacial and Holocene climatic change and human impact in eastern Anatolia: high-resolution pollen, charcoal, isotopic and geochemical records from the laminated sediments of Lake Van, Turkey, The Holocene, 13(5), 665-675.
Williams, G.P., & Costa, J.E. (1988) Geomorphic measurements after a flood. Pp. 65–77. In: Baker, R.V., Kochel, R.C., & Patton, P.C. (eds.). Flood Geomorphology. New York, John Wiley & Sons.
Woolley, C.L. (1955). Ur Excavations, Vol. IV: The Early Periods. Publication of the Joint Expedition of the British Museum and of the Museum of the University of Pennsylvania to Mesopotamia, University Museum, Philadelphia. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003598X00028866
Wuebbles, D.J., Fahey, D.W., Hibbard, K.A., Dokken, D.J., Stewart, B.C., & Maycock, T.K. (2017). Climate science special report: Fourth national climate assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. 470 pages.
Xie, Y.G., & Fu, Q. (2004). Analysis of famines caused by heavy floods and droughts in China. Natural Sciences, 2(2), 25-32.
Zielonka, T., Holeksa, J., & Ciapała, S. (2008). A reconstruction of flood events using scarred trees in the Tatra Mountains, Poland. Dendrochronologia, 26(3), 173-183.