شواهد و پیامدهای رویداد سیل در ایران از پیش از تاریخ تا کنون

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانش‌آموخته دکتری باستان‌شناسی پیش از تاریخ، گروه تاریخ و باستان‌شناسی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران

چکیده

سیل یک رویداد مخرب است که هم به‌علل طبیعی و هم به‌‌دلیل مدیریت نادرست عوامل انسانی رخ می‌دهد. در دوره‌های تغییر اقلیم، عمدتاً به‌دلیل بارش‌های حدی، سیلاب‌های ویران‌گری اتفاق افتاده‌اند، به‌طوری‌که منجر به خسارات و زیان‌های اقتصادی سنگین، آوارگی، مهاجرت‌، شیوع بیماری‌های همه‌گیر و مرگ‌ومیر بسیاری از مردم شده‌اند. پژوهش‌های روان‌شناختی مرتبط با گرمایش کنونی زمین نیز نشان‌دهنده بروز و یا تشدید اختلالات روانی پس از وقوع این رویداد طبیعی هستند. در همین راستا، در این پژوهش به‌منظور روشن‌تر شدن ابعاد گوناگون رخداد سیل، پیامدهای ناگوار اقتصادی، اجتماعی و سلامتی آن مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. هم‌چنین، با بهره‌گیری از پژوهش‌های دیرین‌اقلیم، باستان‌شناسی و تاریخی، نمونه‌هایی از این رویداد که اثرات مخرب گسترده‌ای به‌جا گذاشته‌اند، ارائه شده‌اند. گردآوری رویدادهای وقوع سیل از اسناد تاریخی و یافتن شواهد سیلاب در بین لایه‌های فرهنگی محوطه‌های باستانی در کنار پژوهش‌های دیرین‌اقلیم، می‌تواند نتایج دقیق‌تری از شرایط اقلیمی و محیطی گذشته حاصل نماید. در بررسی‌های رسوب‌شناسی محیطی برخی از محوطه‌های باستانی ایران، شواهد وقوع سیلاب‌های سهمگینی متعلق به اواسط و اواخر هزاره چهارم قبل از میلاد یافت شده‌ است و در کتب تاریخی دوره اسلامی نیز برخی از این رخدادها گزارش شده‌اند. این وقایع با دوره‌های تغییر اقلیم گرمایش قرون وسطی و عصر یخبندان کوچک هم‌زمانی دارند و در ایران بیش‌تر به‌دلیل بارش‌های حدی و طغیان رودخانه‌ها و مسیل‌ها رخ داده‌اند. در نتیجه، اگر پیش‌گیری و مهار سیل در ایران به‌طور کارآمد و مؤثر مدیریت نشود، بارش‌های حدی مرتبط با تغییر اقلیم کنونی می‌توانند اثرات منفی اجتماعی- اقتصادی جبران‌ناپذیری به جا بگذارند.

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