Evaluating the consequences of climate change under two scenarios of existing conditions and carrying out control measures

Document Type : Review Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Strategic Studies, Faculty of Defense, University of Strategic Sciences, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Special Operations and Coastal Reconnaissance, Faculty of Marine Corps, Imam Khomeini Naval University of Noshahr, Noshahr, Mazandaran, Iran

3 Senior Expert, Department of Passive Defense, Faculty of Marine Corps, Imam Khomeini Naval University of Noshahr, Noshahr, Mazandaran, Iran

4 Assistant Professor, Department of Passive Defense, Faculty of Marine Corps, Imam Khomeini Naval University of Noshahr, Noshahr, Mazandaran, Iran

Abstract

Introduction
Climate change is caused by global warming, and its consequences have become one of the most important concerns and public policies in many countries. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the UN's International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in November 2007 said that global warming cannot be stopped and that, at best, average temperatures in 2090-2099 will be 1.1 to 6.4 degrees above 1980-1999. If the global average temperature increases by more than 1.5 to 2.5 °C, about 20-30 % of animal and plant species could disappear. The perspective of national security actors on climate change is important. Climate changes change the military's strategic and operational environment and provide them with new options and challenges. Moving beyond the global warming cause-and-effect argument, this article argues that it is important for the military to begin planning to address the potentially devastating effects of global warming in the military domain. The consequences of climate change can affect the organization, training, equipping, and planning of the military services. Today, scientists and military leaders must determine the potential impacts of climate change on the ability to perform missions in support of national security objectives. Most countries already recognize the risk of climate change in their military installations and warn that more resources and monitoring systems are needed to increase preparedness. In this article, the causes of global warming and climate change are discussed first, and then the consequences of global warming are discussed with an emphasis on the military aspect.
 
Materials and Methods
This study aims to examine the various consequences of global warming. As mentioned in the introduction section, the rate of global warming can be slowed down but this warming process will continue. Since some of the consequences of global warming are caused by previous consequences, the consequences of global warming can be placed in the main sections and sub-sections; since some of the consequences of warming can be reduced by taking control measures; Therefore, we defined the consequences of warming in the form of two scenarios. The first scenario was considered for the case where no control measures were taken. The second scenario was for the case where control measures are taken to prevent secondary consequences. In the first scenario, in the first stage, the primary consequences of global warming were determined using numerous reliable internal and external libraries internet sources, and articles. In the second stage of this scenario, by holding a meeting with 5 experts in this matter, other different consequences of global warming were identified and categorized in general along with the consequences extracted from the first stage; In the second scenario, by holding an expert meeting (five experts in this matter), control measures to prevent the consequences of warming and the consequences of global warming after the control measures were determined.
 
Results and Discussion
Global warming, directly and indirectly, causes an increase in the temperature of the air near the surface of the earth and the ocean, the melting of polar ice (increasing the tension between the countries of the Arctic region), and the rise of the sea level, the increase in the intensity of storm waves, the submergence of some areas that have a low height compared to the free sea level, drought in some areas, especially areas located in the arid and semi-arid belt of the earth, intensification of torrential rains in some areas, increase in the intensity of tropical storms in storm-prone areas, water and food crisis, poverty and hunger, migration, destruction of equipment and military bases, especially those located near coastal areas, reduction of the efficiency of military personnel. There will be an increase in fine dust and pollution, common rivers and war over it both at the domestic and regional levels, increasing the role of the military and security forces, marginalization around the cities due to internal migration, and an increase in the risk of terrorism at the international level.
 
Conclusion
We defined the consequences of warming in the form of two scenarios. The first scenario was considered for the case where no control measures were taken. The second scenario is for the case where control measures are taken to prevent secondary consequences. In the first stage of this research, the primary consequences of global warming were determined using numerous reliable internal and external libraries internet sources, and articles. In the second stage of the research, by holding a meeting with 10 experts in this matter, other different consequences of global warming and control measures were identified and categorized in general along with the consequences extracted from the first stage; rising sea levels, increasing intensity of tropical storms in storm-prone areas, increasing intensity of storm waves, submergence of coastal areas, destruction of equipment and military bases near the coast, drought, migration and use of common rivers and war over it on dimensions both domestically and regionally are among the most important consequences of global warming in the form of the first scenario. In the second scenario, where it was assumed that control measures are taken to prevent the consequences of global warming, only the natural consequences of global warming appeared and it can be said that security is guaranteed to a good extent and practically the consequences that involve the military dimension are reaches its lowest value.
 

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References

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Water and Soil Management and Modelling
Volume 4, Issue 4
December 2024
Pages 79-98

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History

  • Receive Date: 06 June 2023
  • Revise Date: 18 June 2023
  • Accept Date: 27 June 2023

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