مقایسۀ عملکرد مدل‌های هوش مصنوعی با مدل IHACRES در مدل‌سازی جریان حوضۀ آبریز رودخانۀ گاماسیاب

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی عمران/ گرایش مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب، دانشکده فنی مهندسی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران.

چکیده

امروزه رویکردهای جدید مدل‌سازی جریان به‌دلیل تغییرات اقلیمی و نوسانات شدت و مدت بارش در اکثر مناطق جهان، برای مدیریت منابع آب و کاهش خطرات ناشی از بروز سیلاب نقش فوق‌العاده‌ای دارند. در این پژوهش، به مدل‌سازی جریان برای حوضۀ آبریز رودخانه گاماسیاب، واقع در غرب ایران، پرداخته ‌شده است. برای این منظور از مدل‌های هوش مصنوعی (AI) شامل، مدل‌های شبکۀ عصبی مصنوعی (ANN) از نوع پرسپترون چندلایه (MLP)، شبکۀ عصبی تابع پایه شعاعی (RBF) و مدل حافظه طولانی کوتاه-مدت (LSTM) استفاده‌ شده است. علاوه بر این برای ارزیابی بهتر مدل‌های AI از یک مدل تخصصی نیمه مفهومی بارش-رواناب نیز با عنوان IHACRES بهره گرفته شد. داده‌های مورد استفاده شامل، داده‌های دبی جریان، بارش و متوسط دمای روزانه برای یک دورة زمانی 31 سال (1 مهر 1365-31 شهریور 1396) که به‌صورت سری زمانی داده‌های با تأخیر و به‌عنوان سیگنال ورودی به مدل‌ها استفاده‌ شده است. جهت ارزیابی عملکرد مدل‌ها از معیار ضریب کارایی نش-ساتکلیف (NSE)، مجذور میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE) و ضریب همبستگی (R) استفاده شد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده براساس معیار NSE برای مدل‌هایLSTM ، RBF، ANN و IHACRES در دورة صحت‌سنجی به‌ترتیب برابر مقادیر 0/930، 0/907، 0/903 و 0/512 است. بنابراین، مدل LSTM عملکرد بهتری در دورة صحت‌سنجی نسبت به سایر مدل‌ها در تخمین دبی جریان ارائه کرد. در ضمن، نتایج به‌دست آمده هر چهار مدل به‌کار گرفته شده رضایت‌بخش است. نتایج حاکی از عملکرد بهتر مدل‌های ANN، RBF و LSTM به‌ویژه در نقاط اوج جریان نسبت به IHACRES در مدل‌سازی جریان برای منطقۀ مورد مطالعه است. در کل، نتایج نشان داد که مدل‌های AI، ابزار مفید برای مدل‌سازی نوسانات جریان هستند و توصیه می‌شود در مطالعات آتی، این ابزار بیش‌تر مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

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