Urban water crisis foresight through scenario planning: A structural and managerial analysis of Ardabil city

Introduction
According to United Nations reports, Iran is among the ten countries experiencing the highest levels of water stress worldwide, with annual per capita renewable water resources falling below 1,000 cubic meters, thereby exceeding the critical threshold. Excessive extraction of water resources, declining precipitation caused by climate change, and rapid urban and agricultural population growth have intensified the water crisis across many regions of the country. Furthermore, climate change impacts—particularly the increasing intensity and frequency of droughts—have significantly increased the recurrence of critical conditions and complicated long-term water resource forecasting. Reduced access to water resources not only exacerbates poverty and livelihood vulnerability but also contributes to forced migration, especially from rural to urban areas, thereby deepening regional inequalities. Empirical evidence suggests that water scarcity and its unequal distribution disproportionately affect low-income populations, intensifying social and economic disparities at both local and global scales. In Ardabil, the water crisis is not limited to quantitative shortages; water quality has also become a serious concern. In addition to natural processes, human activities—particularly those associated with the agricultural sector—have contributed to the contamination of water resources with heavy metals and other pollutants.
Materials and Methods
This study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive–analytical in nature, employing a futures studies approach. The primary objective is to develop plausible scenarios for the future of the water crisis in Ardabil, considering developments and uncertainties up to the horizon year 2035. The research methodology is based on a combination of the modified Delphi method and cross-impact analysis, with data collected through expert questionnaires. The study population consisted of 30 experts in the fields of water resource management, urban planning, environmental science, agriculture, and climatology, selected through purposive sampling. In the first phase, a two-round modified Delphi method was employed to identify the variables influencing the water crisis. During the first round, a semi-structured questionnaire was distributed among experts, including sections related to environmental, economic, social, and managerial variables, while also allowing respondents to introduce additional factors through open-ended responses. The purpose of this stage was to extract an initial set of influential variables. In the second round, the identified variables were presented to the experts, who were asked to evaluate their importance and influence using a Likert scale. Based on the aggregated responses, the final set of variables was selected. Subsequently, these variables were analyzed using a cross-impact matrix to determine their levels of influence and interdependence. Finally, Scenario Wizard software was utilized to process the data and generate plausible future scenarios.
Results and Discussion
Based on the outputs generated by scenario wizard, six robust scenarios were identified for the future of the water crisis in Ardabil. Among these, scenario 1 represents the most favorable and optimal condition. The analysis indicates that the future of Ardabil’s water system can be categorized into three distinct yet interconnected groups, each reflecting different levels of governance effectiveness, infrastructural capacity, and the interaction between water supply and demand. The first group, which includes scenarios 1 and 2, represents conditions of relative to optimal stability. In these scenarios, integrated water resource management, targeted infrastructure investment, and increased public awareness and participation contribute to a relative balance between available resources and consumption. Under such circumstances, the system demonstrates sufficient resilience to cope with climatic fluctuations and maintain stability through adaptive mechanisms.
In contrast, the second group, represented by Scenario 3, reflects a transitional phase toward instability. In this scenario, early signs of water stress—such as reduced precipitation, declining infrastructure efficiency, and weak institutional coordination—gradually emerge. Although the system remains functional, the accumulation of these pressures increases vulnerability and reduces adaptive capacity over time. The third group, consisting of scenarios 4, 5, and 6, represents critical and highly unstable conditions. These scenarios are characterized by severe water shortages, deteriorating infrastructure performance, ineffective governance, increasing demand pressures, and declining institutional capacity. Under such circumstances, the imbalance between water supply and demand intensifies, leading to heightened social, economic, and environmental challenges.
Conclusion
The findings indicate that the future of Ardabil’s urban water system is shaped by a complex interaction of managerial, infrastructural, social, and climatic factors and cannot be attributed solely to natural variations such as precipitation levels. Even under conditions of relatively improved rainfall, weaknesses in governance, inefficient infrastructure, and limited managerial capacity may still intensify the crisis. This suggests that the roots of the water crisis lie more in structural and institutional deficiencies than in absolute resource scarcity. Furthermore, the developed scenarios demonstrate that the future trajectory of the system is non-linear and highly dependent on governance quality, institutional coordination, investment levels, and consumption patterns. In the sustainable scenarios, integrated management, strengthened infrastructure, and enhanced social participation contribute to balancing supply and demand and improving system resilience. Conversely, in the critical scenarios, accumulated inefficiencies, poor planning, and inadequate demand management result in persistent water shortages, even when water resources are relatively abundant. Scenario 3, representing the transitional phase, is particularly significant as a strategic turning point, providing opportunities for effective intervention at lower cost and with greater impact. Once the system enters more advanced stages of crisis, the complexity of the situation increases, making a return to stable conditions considerably more difficult. In conclusion, the future of Ardabil’s water resources depends more on governance quality and managerial capacity than on climatic conditions alone. Achieving sustainability therefore requires the adoption of integrated water resource management approaches, the strengthening of technical infrastructure, improved institutional coordination, increased social participation, and the reform of consumption patterns. Additionally, incorporating foresight and scenario-based approaches into decision-making processes can facilitate the timely identification of emerging threats, prevent the system from shifting toward critical scenarios, and support sustainable urban development.