Future-oriented agricultural water management with scenario-based evaluation: Case study of Maize in Khuzestan

Document Type : Special Issue: New Approaches to Water and Soil Management and Modeling

Authors

1 Ph.D. Candidate in Irrigation and Drainage, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation, University of Tehran; and Faculty Member at Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

3 Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

Abstract

Amidst intensifying climatic and management pressures on water resources in Iran, this research focuses on exploring the desirable and effective future of water use in agriculture, with a case study of maize in Khuzestan Province. The LARS-WG 8 was used to project climate data up to the horizon year 2040. The biophysical crop yield was examined using AquaCrop 7.1. According to the results, the LARS-WG model generated temperature data (NRMSE≈1%) with greater accuracy than precipitation (NRMSE≤13%) at Ahvaz and Dezful stations. In addition, the AquaCrop model (R²=0.96, RMSE<0.5 t/ha, NSE≈0.98) confirmed the high accuracy of maize yield simulation. Moreover, structural scenarios developed with the ScenarioWizard software and the MICMAC matrix included 13 significant drivers from the policy, technology, and climate domains. The findings indicate that the effect of climate change on water productivity is incremental, and shaping a desirable future is largely influenced by management. The results showed that, when moving from SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5, grain maize yield and water productivity increased in both spring and summer maize. In spring, yield increased from 6.26 t/ha in SSP1-2.6 to 6.79 t/ha in SSP5-8.5, and water productivity increased from 1.13 to 1.22 kg/m3. In summer, this trend was more pronounced, with yield rising from 8.32 to 9.15 t/ha and water productivity from 1.29 to 1.42 kg/m3. These results indicated that under the more severe climate change scenario (SSP5-8.5), crop growth and yield were more affected, especially in summer. Furthermore, this study provides a picture of the desired future of water use in agriculture. According to the Total Impact Score in ScenarioWizard, (381, 405, 408) a desirable and effective future was identified when political and technological measures were taken at a high level of intervention. According to these results, achieving a desirable future depends on the full implementation of decentralization policies, data transparency, and the use of advanced statistical systems.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Water and Soil Management and Modelling
Volume 6, Issue 2
Special Issue (Guest Editor: Dr. Raoof Mostafazadeh)
May 2026
Pages 232-251

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History

  • Receive Date: 01 December 2025
  • Revise Date: 29 December 2025
  • Accept Date: 29 December 2025

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