Factors influencing farmers’ participation in the implementation of modern irrigation: A C5 decision tree approach in Aq Qala county

Introduction
This study aimed to investigate the factors influencing farmers’ participation in the implementation of modern irrigation systems and to identify the key determinants of their involvement in such projects. The significance of this research lies in the crucial role of farmers’ active cooperation in achieving sustainable water resource management, particularly in agricultural regions such as Aq Qala, located in Golestan Province. The primary objective was to examine individual, economic, and institutional characteristics that affect farmers’ willingness or reluctance to participate in these initiatives. Key factors considered included education, economic status, land ownership, access to water sources, farm size, and familiarity with participatory concepts and local institutions. By modeling these factors using the C5 decision tree algorithm, the study sought to provide a reliable predictive tool for policymakers and agricultural planners to design targeted interventions, enhance sustainable water resource management, and promote effective and enduring farmer participation. Additionally, the research aimed to offer practical recommendations to increase farmer engagement in modern irrigation programs, ultimately contributing to improved water management, enhanced agricultural productivity, and long-term resilience of local farming communities. The insights gained from this study may also inform future strategies for the adoption of innovative agricultural technologies in similar socio-economic and environmental contexts.
Materials and Methods
This research is applied in nature and employs a survey-based approach for data collection. For modeling and analysis, the C5 decision tree algorithm was used. The classification method of this algorithm is based on dividing data into smaller and more homogeneous subsets. Its advantages include simplicity, high interpretability, and the use of a small number of parameters, which enhances its efficiency and computational performance. The implementation of the C5 decision tree algorithm in this study was carried out using the RapidMiner software environment. After designing and distributing the questionnaire among farmers, agricultural experts, and relevant authorities, the collected data were analyzed using the C5 decision tree modeling method in RapidMiner. This approach was employed to identify the key factors influencing farmers’ willingness or unwillingness to participate in the implementation of modern irrigation systems. The research sample consisted of 68 farmers from the Aqqala region in Golestan Province, Iran. Their responses to the questionnaire were analyzed to determine the most significant factors affecting their decision to participate in modern irrigation projects. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by academic supervisors, professional experts, and officials from the Golestan Regional Water Company. The reliability of the questionnaire was also verified through Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, which was calculated using SPSS version 22. The independent variables used in this study included literacy level, education, age, occupation, economic status, cultivated land area, land ownership type (agricultural or orchard), water sources, familiarity with the concept of participation, and awareness of local institutions and organizations. The dependent variable was defined as the farmers’ willingness or unwillingness to participate in the implementation of modern irrigation projects.
 
 
Results and Discussion
The results revealed that farmers’ willingness to participate in modern irrigation systems is shaped by a combination of economic, social, and institutional factors. Key individual and economic drivers included literacy, economic status, land ownership, and familiarity with participatory practices. Educated, financially secure, and land-owning farmers exhibited higher participation, whereas illiterate, low-income, or tenant farmers were more cautious. Institutionally, access to legal water sources and trust in governmental Authorities, along with economic incentives such as free installation and after-sales service guarantees, were significant motivators. The interaction between age and education showed that younger farmers and educated older farmers were more actively engaged. Conversely, distrust of governmental institutions and complex water regulations acted as barriers. The C5 decision tree effectively modeled these complex relationships and quantified the predictive accuracy of farmers’ participation willingness. Without economic support, it is difficult to achieve sustainable participation, especially among low-income groups. In the social dimension, age and education level play a reinforcing role, and the younger generation and the educated elderly have shown a greater willingness to participate in modern irrigation system projects. On the other hand, distrust in government institutions and the complexity of laws related to water resources are considered to be factors inhibiting effective participation. Accordingly, promoting farmer participation requires a combination of economic support, legal facilitation, targeted education, and institutional trust-building.
Conclusion
Enhancing farmer participation in modern irrigation systems requires a multifaceted strategy encompassing economic support, targeted education, legal facilitation, and institutional trust-building. Financial status and governmental support emerged as the strongest predictors of participation, indicating that sustainable engagement is unlikely without economic backing. Social factors such as age and education play a supplementary role, with literate populations, particularly youth, more inclined to participate. Distrust of authorities and regulatory complexity remain significant obstacles. Policy recommendations include providing low-interest financial support, implementing targeted training and outreach programs, and establishing sustainable post-implementation technical services. Such measures are expected to transform minimal or conditional participation into active, voluntary, and enduring engagement, promoting optimal and sustainable water resource management in agriculture.