Modeling streamflow dynamics under climate and land use shifts using MIKE SHE in the upper Omo Gibe catchment, Ethiopia

Document Type : Research/Original/Regular Article

Authors

1 PhD scholar in Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia

2 Professor, Faculty of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia

3 Associate Professor, Faculty of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia

10.22098/mmws.2025.17906.1632

Abstract

MIKE SHE hydrological model using three distinct scenarios was incorporated to analyze the influence of changing climatic conditions and alterations in land utilization patterns on river discharge dynamics integrating three climate data periods (1990 - 2000, 2001 - 2010, and 2011 - 2020) with three land use and land cover (LULC) maps (1990, 2005, and 2020). The model was systematically calibrated and validated, achieving Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.83 and 0.82 for calibration and 0.80 and 0.81 for validation, respectively, demonstrating strong reliability in simulating the catchment’s hydrological processes. Results indicate substantial influence of both LULC and climate changes across 2001–2010 and 2011–2020. LULC alterations increased surface runoff by 10.29% and 2.38%, while subsurface flow and evapotranspiration decreased by -6.03% and -6.82%, and by 0.75% and -5.49%, respectively. Climate variations further augmented surface runoff by 2.14% and 12.72%, with corresponding reductions in subsurface flow and evapotranspiration of -7.43% and -10.40%, and -10.03% and -21.65%, respectively. Both climate and LULC changes promoted subsurface flow and evapotranspiration during 2001 - 2010, with declining trends observed during 2011 - 2020. The findings underscore that expanded settlements and reductions in forest and shrub land have intensified streamflow while lowering subsurface flow and evapotranspiration, emphasizing the need for integrated climate and land use considerations in water resource management strategies.

Hydrological processes are driven by complex interfaces between climatic variables and land surface characteristics. Variations in climatic conditions and land utilization patterns profoundly influence hydrological systems of drainage basins, reshaping storm water discharge mechanisms, soil absorption capacities, and subsurface water replenishment rates. These alterations disrupt the long-term viability of hydrological governance, influencing basin-scale water allocation, ecosystem health, and flood risk. Even though extensive research on the changes in hydrological regimes of shifting climatic patterns and human-driven landscape alterations have been undertaken but critical gaps still remain to understand the fundamental processes governing these interactions, particularly in data-scarce regions like Ethiopia. The need for high-resolution hydrological models effectively capture surface-subsurface water interactions in improving predictions and informing adaptive water management strategies.

Shifts in climate conditions driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions has led to significant changes. Watershed hydrology is influenced by the uneven rainfall distribution, temperature regimes, and changes in water loss from soil and vegetation. These changes can alter streamflow patterns leading to increased duration and scale of extreme hydrological event including heavy rainfall and prolonged dry spells. The transformation of natural landscapes by deforestation, agricultural intensification, and urbanization augments disturbances in water cycles by disrupting runoff dynamics, limiting groundwater absorption, and reducing aquifer recharge rates. The convergence of shifting climate regimes and human-altered ecosystems often result in multiplicative impacts on basin stability, requiring adaptive modeling frameworks to project long-term hydrological shifts.

Hydrologic models though extensively applied, research gaps persist in accurately representing the synergistic impacts of climate and land use transformations on streamflow. Many existing studies rely on models such as SWAT and HEC-HMS, which is rarely applicable to large-scale watershed simulations, have limitations in integrating surface and subsurface water interactions at high spatial and temporal resolutions emphasized the need for distributed models capable of capturing finer hydrological complexities in changing landscapes. The MIKE SHE model, in contrast, offers a process-based, fully distributed approach that integrates surface water, groundwater, and evapotranspiration processes, making it particularly suitable for capturing fine-scale hydrological variations and interactions.

The Upper Omo Gibe catchment, a critical hydrological region in Ethiopia, has witnessed significant alterations in climate patterns and land utilization in past decades. Current research fully utilizes high-resolution models such as MIKE SHE to explore the synergistic impacts of these factors on streamflow. In Ethiopia, prior analyses using SWAT have emphasized broad hydrological trends driven by climate and land cover changes but overlooked localized mechanisms, such as subsurface flow dynamics that are vital for assessing fine-scale streamflow responses. Furthermore, existing research has predominantly examined either climate variability or land cover shifts as stand-alone factor, which is inadequate to capture their collective effects on hydrological processes. These linked processes is imperative for effective critical water resource planning and mitigating hydrological risks under climate change scenarios.

This analysis addresses the limitation by using the MIKE SHE model to evaluate the combined effects of climate variability and land cover changes on streamflow in the Upper Omo Gibe catchment. Thus, this research explores the watershed hydrology by integrating high resolution climate and land use data with process based hydrological modeling.

Daily climatological data including precipitation and temperature extremes (minimum and maximum) required for MIKE SHE model were obtained from the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (EMA). The data (1990 to 2020) were acquired from nine meteorological stations (1 - 9) and one hydrological station (10) to overcome problems of data continuity and delay in establishing the stations. The datasets were chosen for their completeness, long-term availability and appropriateness for model analysis. The streamflow data were collected from 1990 to 2014 from Ministry of Water and Energy (MoWE), Government of Ethiopia. The reference evapotranspiration values were computed using the Penman-Monteith method. The dataset was subjected to a thorough screening for outliers and incomplete data. Corrections were made by checking against records from neighboring stations. Catchments and monitoring stations were chosen for the completeness and quality of the available data and time series with less than 10% missing values for daily streamflow and monthly weather records. This rigorous selection and validation procedure ensured both extensive and accurate data integration

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References

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  • Receive Date: 24 July 2025
  • Revise Date: 10 August 2025
  • Accept Date: 10 August 2025

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