Quantifying the contributions of climate change and direct human interventions to streamflow alteration in the Hablehrood watershed using empirical approaches

Document Type : Research/Original/Regular Article

Authors

1 Associate Professor/ Watershed Management Department, Faculty of Range and Watershed Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

2 Ph.D. Student/ Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

3 Professor/Watershed Management Department, Faculty of Range and Watershed Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

4 Head of Surface Water Utilization/ Regional Water Company of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

5 Assistant Professor/ Watershed Management Department, Faculty of Range and Watershed Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

6 Head of Applied Research/ Regional Water Company of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Introduction
Climate changes and human activities are the two main factors altering the hydrological cycle of watersheds causing changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability. The river flow, as the most critical component of the hydrological cycle, is the most vulnerable component that is affected by these changes resulting in worrying consequences on water demand by different sectors. Since there is growing controversy on the contribution of two main factors (climate change and human interventions) affecting river flow alteration, assessment and quantification of their contribution is of utmost importance to the water resources managers. Quantification of climate change and direct human intervention contributions to streamflow alteration is a prerequisite for developing adaptation strategies and policies for regional water resources planning and management. To this end, various approaches and methods have been developed and proposed during the last decades in order to separate the contribution of natural and human-induced factors on river flow regime conditions. The current research investigates the contribution of climate change and direct human interventions on the discharge decline of the Hablehrood watershed.
 
Materials and Methods
In this research, the upstream area of the Hablehrood watershed draining to the Bonekouh hydrometry station, located within the Tehran Province jurisdiction, has been studied. The hydrological condition of the Hablehrood watershed, as a main drainage channel of the watershed, has drastically altered during recent years and its discharge has significantly decreased. In this study, first, the long-term statistics of Simindasht and Dalichay hydrometric stations were collected and subjected to pre-processing. Then, using the Pettit and Lanzante statistical tests, the significant change point in their annual discharge time series was identified. Then, the empirical methods of the slope change ratio of accumulative quantity (SCRAQ) and double mass curve (DMC) were applied to separate the effect of climate change and human interventions on the discharge decline of the Hablehrood watershed and its main tributaries. Since rainfall, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration are considered the main climatic elements in both the used methods, the relationship between discharge, and precipitation, between discharge and precipitation as well as temperature, between discharge and precipitation as well as potential evapotranspiration were analyzed in order to compute the contribution of climatic drivers first. According to the empirical methods, after calculating the contribution of climatic variables to the changes in water flow, the remaining changes in water flow are attributed to human interventions. In this study, the observed data from the hydrometry stations of Simindasht and Dalichay during 1980 – 2017 were used. For SCRAQ, the slope change of the ratio of cumulative discharge and cumulative values of rainfall and temperature as well as the slope change of the ratio of cumulative discharge and cumulative values of rainfall and evapotranspiration were computed to separate the effects of climate change and human interventions.
 
Results and Discussion
The results of both tests showed that the hydrological regime of the basin changed in the mid-1990s in both hydrometric stations and the average annual discharge drastically decreased in the period after the change point. Results of different calculation methods of SCRAQ (the slope change of the ratio of cumulative discharge and cumulative values of rainfall and temperature (first method) and the slope change of the ratio of cumulative discharge and cumulative values of rainfall and evapotranspiration (second method)) showed that human intervention is the main cause of discharge decline within the Hablehrood watershed. According to the first calculation method, the contribution of climate change on discharge decline at the Simindasht and Dalichay stations were, respectively, 15.53 % and -37.08 %, and for the second calculation method, 0.55 % and -39.72 %, respectively. The positive values for the contribution of climate change to the Dalichay station indicate that climate change has resulted in an increase in its discharge. Results of different calculation methods of DMC between cumulative values of discharge and climate variables showed that climate change has increasing effects on the discharge of both Simindasht and Dalichay sub-watersheds.
 
Conclusion
Human intervention is the main cause of discharge decline in the Hablehrood watershed and the contribution of climate change is very small and incremental in some cases, particularly for the Dalichay sub-watershed. Therefore, management policies and priorities should be focused on managing human interventions, promoting public awareness, optimal using of water resources, and preventing over-exploitation of water resources across the watershed. The results of this study can provide a scientific guidefor the development, utilization, and management of regional water resources and ecological environment protection.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

Ahmed, Y., Al-Faraj, F., Scholz, M., & Soliman, A. (2019). Assessment of upstream human intervention coupled with climate change impact for a transboundary river flow regime: Nile river basin. Water Resources Management, 33(7), 2485-2500.
Alaoui, A., Willimann, E., Jasper, K., Felder, G., Herger, F., Magnusson, J., & Weingartner, R. (2014). Modelling the effects of land use and climate changes on hydrology in the Ursern Valley, Switzerland. Hydrological Processes, 28(10), 3602-3614.‏
Baloch, M.A., Ames, D.P., & Tanik, A. (2015). Hydrologic impacts of climate and land-use change on Namnam stream in Koycegiz watershed, Turkey. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 12(5), 1481-1494.‏
Dey, P., & Mishra, A. (2017). Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: A review of methodologies and critical assumptions. Journal of Hydrology, 548, 278-290.
Du, J., He, F., Zhang, Z., & Shi, P. (2011). Precipitation change and human impacts on hydrologic variables in Zhengshui river basin, China. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 25(7), 1013-1025.
Farinosi, F., Arias, M.E., Lee, E., Longo, M., Pereira, F.F., Livino, A., Moorcroft, P., & Briscoe, J. (2019). Future climate and land use change impacts on river flows in the Tapajós basin in the Brazilian Amazon. Earth's Future, 7(8), 993-1017.‏
Gao, G., Fu, B., Wang, S., Liang, W., & Jiang, X. (2016). Determining the hydrological responses to climate variability and land use/cover change in the Loess Plateau with the Budyko framework. Science of the Total Environment, 557, 331-342.‏
Gao, P., Mu, X.M., Wang, F., & Li, R. (2011). Changes in streamflow and sediment discharge and the response to human activities in the middle reaches of the Yellow river. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1–10.
Hasanzadeh, R., Esfandiyari Darabad, F., & Asghari, S. (2021). Evaluating of land use changes on the discharge Darre Rood river in the period (1990-2019) using HEC_HMS model. Quantitative Geomorphological Research, 10(3), 157-174 (in Persian).
Hayatzadeh, M., & Mousavi, V. (2018). Modeling the effect of climate change and land use change on the hydrological conditions of the watershed. The 13th National Conference on Watershed Management Science & Engineering of Iran and The 3rd National Conference on Conservation of Natural Resources and Environment, Ardabil,  Iran, Pp. 1-8 (in Persian).
Hernandez, M., Miller, S.N., Goodrich, D.C., Goff, B.F., Kepner, W.G., Edmonds, C.M., & Bruce Jones, K. (2000). Modeling runoff response to land cover and rainfall spatial variability in semi-arid watersheds. Monitoring Ecological Condition in the Western United States, 64, 285-298.
Huang, M., Zhang, L., & Gallichand, J. (2003). Runoff responses to afforestation in a watershed of the Loess Plateau, China. Hydrological Processes, 17(13), 2599-2609.
Huo, Z., Feng, S., Kang, S., Li, W., & Chen, S. (2008). Effect of climate changes and water‐related human activities on annual stream flows of the Shiyang river basin in arid north‐west China. Hydrological Processes, 22(16), 3155-3167.
Hejazizadeh, Z., Akbari, M., Sasanpour, F., Hosseini, A., & Mohammadi, N. (2022). Investigating the effects of climate change on torrential rains in Tehran Province. Water and Soil Management and Modelling, 2(2), 87-105 (in Persian).
Karimi Sangchini, E., Ownegh, M., Sadoddin, A., Tahmasebipuor, N., & Rezaee, H. (2017). A system dynamics model to predict the effects of vegetation-based management scenarios ‎on structural landscape ecology in Hablehrud river basin. Watershed Engineering and Management, 9(1), 58-70 (in Persian).
Karimi Sangchini, E., Ownegh, M., Sadoddin, A., Tahmasebipuor, N., & Rezaee, H. (2018). An investigation on affecting factors on community participation and predicting the community acceptance of the vegetation-based management scenarios for the Hablerud river basin. Watershed Engineering and Management, 10(3), 280-293 (in Persian).
Kundzewicz, Z.W., Mata, L.J., Arnell, N.W., Döll, P., Jiménez, B., Miller, K., & Shiklomanov, I. (2008). The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53(1), 3-10.
Lanzante, J.R. (1996). Resistant, robust and non‐parametric techniques for the analysis of climate data: Theory and examples, including applications to historical radiosonde station data. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 16(11), 1197-1226.
Li, Z., Liu, W.Z., Zhang, X.C., & Zheng, F.L. (2009). Impacts of land use change and climate variability on hydrology in an agricultural catchment on the Loess Plateau of China. Journal of Hydrology, 377(1-2), 35-42.
Liang, K., Liu, C., Liu, X., & Song, X. (2013). Impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow decrease in a sediment concentrated region in the Middle Yellow river. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 27(7), 1741-1749.
Liu, S., Leslie, L.M., Speer, M., Bunker, R., & Mo, X. (2004). The effects of bushfires on hydrological processes using a paired-catchment analysis. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 86(1), 31-44.
Liu, W., Shi, C., & Zhou, Y. (2021). Trends and attribution of runoff changes in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River in China. Journal of Hydro-Environment Research, 37, 57-66.
Liu, X., Liu, W., & Xia, J. (2013). Comparison of the streamflow sensitivity to aridity index between the Danjiangkou reservoir basin and Miyun reservoir basin, China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,111(3), 683-691.
Naderi, M., Sheikh, V., Bahrehmand, A., Komaki, C.B., & Ghangermeh, A. (2022a). Analysis of river flow regime changes using the Indicators of hydrologic alteration (Case study: Hableroud watershed). Water and Soil Management and Modelling, 3(3), 1-19 (in Persian).
Naderi, M., Sheikh, V., Komaki, C., Bahremand, A., Ghangermeh, A., Siroosi, H. (2022 b). Detection and prediction of land use changes using modeling approach within a gis environment (case study: Hablehroud watershed). Journal of Water and Soil Conservation, 29(2), 113-134 (in Persian).
Pettitt, A.N. (1979). A non‐parametric approach to the change‐point problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 28(2), 126-135.
Reddy, N., Patil, N.S., & Nataraja, M. (2021). Assessment of climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature in the Ghataprabha sub-basin using CMIP5 models. Journal of Metrology Society of India, 36(4), 803-812.
Renner, M., Seppelt, R., & Bernhofer, C. (2012). Evaluation of water-energy balance frameworks to predict the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(5), 1419-1433.
Rezaei, M., Omidipour, R., Rezaei, A., & Nadaf, M. (2022). Comparison of the effects of land use change and precipitation on annual discharge (case study: Kiar watershed). Integrated Watershed Management, 2(2), 62-74 (in Persian).
Saidi, H., Dresti, C., Manca, D., & Ciampittiello, M. (2018). Quantifying impacts of climate variability and human activities on the streamflow of an Alpine river. Environmental Earth Sciences, 77(19), 1-16.‏
Sheikh, V.B, Babaei, A., & Mooshakhian, Y. (2009). Trend analysis of precipitation regime in the Gorganroud basin. Iranian Journal of Watershed Management Science and Engineering, 3(8), 29-38 (in Persian).
Sheikh, V., Sadoddin, A., Ong, M., Najafinejad, A., Zare, A., Salman Mahini, A., Abdullahian, H., Barani, H., Kamkar, B., Bairam Komaki, CH., Mohammadian Behbahani, A., Abedi Sarostani, A., Eslami, A., Karamatzadeh, A., Kamyab, H., Khosravi, G., Asadi Nelivan, A., Alvandi, A., Rahmani, M., Sadeghi, F., Montazeri, M., & Haqdadi, M. (2017). Developing integrated watershed managemen plan for Hableroud river basin. Final Research Report, Iranian Forest, Rangeland, and Watershed Management Organization, 259 pages (in Persian).
Sikka, A.K., Samra, J.S., Sharda, V.N., Samraj, P., & Lakshmanan, V. (2003). Low flow and high flow responses to converting natural grassland into bluegum (Eucalyptus globulus) in Nilgiris watersheds of South India. Journal of Hydrology, 270(1-2), 12-26.
Sun, Y., Tian, F., Yang, L., & Hu, H. (2014). Exploring the spatial variability of contributions from climate variation and change in catchment properties to streamflow decrease in a mesoscale basin by three different methods. Journal of Hydrology, 508, 170-180.
Tehran Soil and Water Engineering Consulting Corporation, (2013). A study on promoting efficiency of water use from surface water resources of the Hableroud river and its tributaries within the Tehran Province jurisdiction. Final Research Report, Regional Water Company of Tehran, 226 pages (in Persian). 
Tomer, M.D., & Schilling, K.E. (2009). A simple approach to distinguish land-use and climate-change effects on watershed hydrology. Journal of Hydrology, 376(1-2), 24-33.
Wang, D., & Hejazi, M. (2011). Quantifying the relative contribution of the climate and direct human impacts on mean annual streamflow in the contiguous United States. Water Resources Research, 47(10).
Wang, W., Shao, Q., Yang, T., Peng, S., Xing, W., Sun, F., & Luo, Y. (2013). Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes: a case study in four catchments of the Haihe river basin, China. Hydrological Processes, 27(8), 1158-1174.
Wang, W.G., Shao, Q., Yang, T., Peng, S., Xing, W., Sun, F., & Luo, Y. (2012). Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes: a case study in four catchments of the Haihe river basin, China. Hydrological Processes, 25(7), 881–895.
Xu, M., Wang, G., Wang, Z., Hu, H., Singh, D.K., & Tian, S. (2022). Temporal and spatial hydrological variations of the Yellow River in the past 60 years. Journal of Hydrology, 609, 127750.
Yang, H., & Yang, D. (2011). Derivation of climate elasticity of runoff to assess the effects of climate change on annual runoff. Water Resources Research, 47(7).
Zhang, J.Y., Wang, G.Q., Pagano, T.C., Jin, J.L., Liu, C.S., He, R.M., & Liu, Y.L. (2012). Using hydrologic simulation to explore the impacts of climate change on runoff in the Huaihe river basin of China. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 18(11), 1393-1399.
Zhang, J., Gao, G., Fu, B., & Zhang, L. (2018). Explanation of climate and human impacts on sediment discharge change in Darwinian hydrology: Derivation of a differential equation. Journal of Hydrology, 559, 827-834.‏
Zhang, L., Karthikeyan, R., Bai, Z., & Srinivasan, R. (2017). Analysis of streamflow responses to climate variability and land use change in the Loess Plateau region of China. Catena, 154, 1-11.‏
Zhang, L., Zhao, F.F., & Brown, A.E. (2012). Predicting effects of plantation expansion on streamflow regime for catchments in Australia. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(7), 2109-2121.
Zheng, H., Zhang, L., Zhu, R., Liu, C., Sato, Y., & Fukushima, Y. (2009). Responses of streamflow to climate and land surface change in the headwaters of the Yellow river basin. Water Resources Research, 45(7).
Ziaee, N., Ownegh, M., Asgari, H.R., Massah Bavani, A. R., Salman Mahini, A.R., & Hosseinalizadeh, M. (2017). Comparison of climate change scenarios on the desertification hazard intensity and risk of Hablehroud basin, Tehran Province. Desert Ecosystem Engineering Journal, 6(16), 105-118 (in Persian).
Zuo, D., Xu, Z., Wu, W., Zhao, J., & Zhao, F. (2014). Identification of streamflow response to climate change and human activities in the Wei river basin, China. Water Resources Management, 28(3), 833-851.
Water and Soil Management and Modelling
Volume 3, Issue 1
March 2023
Pages 298-315

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 27 November 2022
  • Revise Date: 11 December 2022
  • Accept Date: 12 December 2022

Share

How to cite

Statistics